"I have fought sixty battles, and I have learned nothing that I did not know from the first."
80%
Win Rate
20 victories
"Soldiers generally win battles; generals get credit for them."
6.92
Avg Achievement
Scale of 0–10
"Ability is nothing without opportunity."
12%
As Underdog
Lowest in peer group
"A battle is won by the army that has the most will to conquer."
Peer Comparison
Raw win rate (dim bar) vs Bayesian-adjusted estimate (bright bar), sorted by Bayesian estimate.
Adjustment uses a Beta(3.25, 1.75) prior — equivalent to ~5 battles at 65%.
Generals with few battles are pulled toward the prior mean. Napoleon barely moves (n=25).
Wellington drops from 100% to 84% (n=6). Error band shows 95% credible interval.
Battle Type Distribution
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Monte Carlo Head-to-Head · 100,000 Simulations
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How does this work?
Every general has a personal record of battle outcomes — how decisively they won or lost each fight, scored 0–10.
To simulate a matchup, we randomly draw one score from each general's career record and compare them. Whoever drew higher wins that round. We repeat this 100,000 times.
The percentage of rounds each general won is their probability of winning a randomly drawn matchup.
Think of it like shuffling each general's career into a deck of cards and drawing one from each. Whose card is higher? Do it 100,000 times and you get a rock-solid probability.
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Win Rate — Favored vs Underdog
Force ratio below 1.0 = attacker had fewer troops than defender at battle start. Napoleon fought as underdog in only 5 of 25 battles — small sample, but the favored rate of 85% is the real story.
Napoleon vs Peers — By Battle Type
Win rates within each cluster type Napoleon actually fought in. Takes era and army size out of the equation — comparing like for like.
Achievement Score Distribution
A flat win rate average hides how decisively a general won. Napoleon stacks 7s, 8s, and 9s. Most peers cluster at 5–6. Scores of 6+ = clear victory. Scores of 0–5 = stalemate or defeat.